EV could account for up to 30pc of US vehicle sales by 2030 if OEMs address key challenges influencing consumer demand, according to a report from research firm BCG.
Modelling by the firm indicates that up to 12pc of US car buyers can be reached with the industry technology available today. US sales of BEVs were at around 9pc in 2023.
But in order to reach a 30pc share of sales OEMs must address four key requirements for BEVs: under 20 minute charging times, under 30 minute detour and wait times for fast-charging stations, 350 mile driving ranges and a price of under $50,000.
“Meeting these customer expectations is possible, but OEMs will require support from both policymakers and the charging ecosystem—particularly if they expect to make money,” says the report.
Only one vehicle available in the US today — the Hyundai Ioniq 6 — meets these requirements.
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OEMs are technologically achieving the technical requirements when they release their next generation of EV platforms, the BCG report finds.
Improvements in battery and battery management technologies are likely to improve range and charging times.
But producing EVs at a price below $50,000 is a bigger challenge.
BCG estimates that most OEMs currently lose around $6,000 on each EV they sell for $50,000, after accounting for tax credits.
“We estimate that OEMs will only be able to close half of this cost gap by making the right technology choices,” says the report.
Closing the rest of the gap will require more aggressive efficiency programs, additional public support, or both.
Policymakers could consider linking financial incentives to total range and range efficiency to incentivise OEMs to invest in these areas, BCG suggests.
Charging providers will also have to find a way to invest profitably in rolling out a network of 350-kilowatt chargers to enable wider uptake, the report finds.
Consumers may increasingly turn to hybrids in a transition step, BCG’s research finds.
Some 56pc of next-wave adopters surveyed by the research firm reported that they were willing to choose a hybrid if their needs weren’t met by fully electric vehicles.
“Hybrid demand will be particularly strong in certain segments, such as mass-market and premium sedans, coupes, and crossovers,” says the report.
Tom is an experienced business writer, specialised in the energy transition
Tom is passionate about Electric Vehicles and how Tesla, BYD, Rivian, Lucid and others are transforming automotive
