Detroit Three automaker GM remains largely a manufacturer of ICE vehicles. BEVs made up less than 5pc of sales of over 650,000 units in its main US market in Q3, even with its all-electric deliveries setting a new quarterly record.
But that does not mean that the firm expects BEVs to remain a marginal part of its portfolio for much longer. In fact, at its investor day earlier this month, there was admittedly a decent portion of time given over to the firm’s success in capturing increased ICE market share through an overhaul of its sales and marketing and achieving better margins by taking costs out of production (as well as generally within the GM organisation).
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BEVs, however, played a far greater role in the narrative than their current slice of the sales pie would justify. Why? Because GM sees its ICE profitability financing its shift to a future where all-electric sales are key to its continuing growth.
So here are the salient points that you need to know about GM’s view of the BEV market and how it plans to become a larger player within it.
1) GM is expecting a huge BEV sales quarter in Q4
We’ve touched on this at greater length here. But it is still worth putting up top lest, in early January, people are still caught wrong-footed when GM releases its US sales numbers for the final quarter of the year.
The firm has sold just over 70,000 BEVs in the US over 2024’s first three quarters. But it expects to make and wholesale 200,000 units for the year as a whole, without blowing up its inventories. To do the former without the latter means Q4 sales are going to have to be mammoth.
And the firm is absolutely not rowing back from 200,000, suggesting Q4 sales trajectories thus far are giving it confidence. “We expect to produce approximately 200,000 EVs in North America this year, which we think is the right level because the market continues to grow, slowly but surely,” says GM president Mark Reuss. But he also stresses that “we are guided by the customer and we will not overproduce”.
Part of its confidence that sales will continue to accelerate is that it feels its product line-up is better than its competitors. “In Q3, EVs grew to 8.2pc of the total US vehicle sales. Our share of that market grew to 9.8pc, almost 10pc,” Reuss continues.
“As we go into the peak selling season here at the end of this year… we are running at approximately 10-to-12 [electric] vehicles per dealer on average,” GM CFO Paul Jacobson adds. “This is aligned with our strategy to create customer awareness, but importantly, have vehicles in locations where customers can experience them. It is not the same as buying an ICE vehicle for many people.
“We are already seeing vehicle turn rates improve as customer demand is increasing along with our higher production rates,” the finance chief continues.
2) BEVs are improving GM’s coastal appeal
As a London-based publication, EV inFocus is always cautious to opine too much on US political sympathies influencing car buying. But the data does seem to back the generalisation that BEVs are more popular on the west coast and in the US northeast, and less so in the flyover states and in the south.
And GM is also observing that its BEV offerings are allowing it to make greater progress on the coasts and with different customer demographics. “Our conquest rates are much higher with our EVs than [with] our ICE vehicles.
“All of our brands are showing 60-67pc non-GM trade-ins for our EV sales. That is compared to 43-46pc on our ICE vehicles,” says Reuss.
“Also, our new EV customers are trending younger, with higher levels of education and household income. And, importantly, they tend to live on the East and West Coast. In fact, 60pc of our EV buyers live on either coast, compared with 40pc of our ICE buyers.
“And [Cadillac] Lyriq, as you might expect, is helping drive our coastal growth. It is our top-selling Cadillac in the west region, ahead of Escalade. Also, California is the number one state for Lyriq sales. Los Angeles is the number one city, and New York City is number two,” the GM president reveals.
3) We are getting an entry-level BEV below the Bolt
The firm remains on scheduled to launch a new iteration of the Chevrolet Bolt, formerly GM’s BEV best seller, late next year. “The 2026 Bolt will offer the same value as the original Bolt and much more and it will be a moneymaker for us,” says Reuss. “It is too early to get into the performance details, but it will have the latest technology and faster charging.”
And while he stresses that the price is not yet final, “it will be only slightly higher than the 2023 Bolt which started at $28,795”. However, that will not be the most affordable option in the GM BEV line-up.
“It will just be one member of a family on the Bolt, including an even lower cost option,” Reuss reveals.
4) GM is all-in on BEVs
Ford CEO Jim Farley is simply a better natural communicator than GM’s Mary Barra. And this can sometimes give the impression that his firm is more enthusiastic about all-electric than its Detroit rival.
But this month’s investor day saw a concerted effort to sell GM’s commitment to BEVs going forward. “We believe at our core that EVs and software will enhance our customer experience and transform the way people move,” Barra says.
“EVs are fun to drive. The total cost of ownership is lower than it is for ICE vehicles. And we are helping to make charging EVs outside the home easier and more convenient,” she continues.
“We found a leadership team with a vision of an all-electric future and eager to embrace new thinking, to have tough conversations, and to make hard decisions in order to do what is right. A team with the skills, abilities, and drive to create a pathway to success and help prepare the company to win in a new era of transportation,” Kelty says.
“We each believe that we are standing in a pivotal moment in history where the experience we bring could be catalyst for change on a scale no other company can match. For me, I am here because I believe GM can leverage its product line-up and strength to sell massive quantities of EVs.”
GM CFO Paul Jacobsen is also singing from the same hymn sheet. “Over time, we should expect to see that EVs are going to grow faster than ICE is,” he predicts.
5) It really wants to beat Ford
It is no secret there is no love lost between the two Michigan rivals — Ford still shoehorning references to the post-financial crisis Chapter 11 protection sought by GM (and Chrysler) into speeches 15 years after the event is testament to that. GM is in equally pugnacious mood when it comes to BEV strategy.
“We do not need to create a skunkworks to create affordable electric vehicles; we know how to do this”, Reuss fired directly at its competitor 10 miles to the west. Barra threw another grenade in that direction as she noted GM’s investment thus far “clearly separates us from competitors who have not launched dedicated EV platforms or built their own cell plants”.
The firm is also keen to emphasise the benefits of bringing battery expertise in-house, albeit “through joint ventures to reduce our capital commitment”. This is another thinly veiled dig at Ford, which has been talking about rationalising its own investments and relying more on third parties to try to staunch its EV bleeding.
“Investment in facilities gives us the ability to do some of the development work ourselves, increasing supplier optionality, strengthening in-house expertise, and ultimately leading to more competitive cell costs,” says Kelty.
“By controlling our own destiny, we can actually work very closely with our partners. We can co-develop sales with them, we can come out with the highest performance and lowest cost, we can really drive what is important for us,” Barra expands.
“If you just start buying sales from others, you are getting a commodity sale that may not be appropriate for you. It is really important to drive to figure out what you need in your application — whether that is a form factor, that is a chemistry that is appropriate for your vehicle. “If you are just buying off the market, it gets really difficult to get what you want,” she continues.
It is not, of course, just Ford that GM is looking to outcompete, it has others in its sights too. “The Lyriq is outselling all luxury EVs from the European luxury brands of BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi nationwide. Big statement,” says Reuss.
6) GM is training its dealers to sell more BEVs
Anecdotal evidence suggests that getting dealerships on board with selling all-electric is tricky, and indeed dealer reluctance to push BEVs may be a factor in slowing down penetration. GM stresses that it is kicking back against that.
“We have very specific people in our dealerships that are trained to sell EVs. In fact, that is growing day-by-day,” says Jacobson. And it is clearly something into which the firm is putting effort.
“We had dinner with some of our best dealers here about a week ago. And they went through and told us about the best practices they have and how that spread across our dealer network. So, this is happening very fast.
“They know the sales goals that we have for EVs, and they know that people will walk if the car is sitting in the back of the lot not charged, or they do not have a charger on site, or there are people that just do not know what the vehicle is. There is not a dealer in our network that is doing that and does not understand the importance of what it is to get retrained up on it.
“We have incredibly intentional programmes in place from GM for our dealers that everybody is very enthusiastic about because of the line-up that we have. And it is starting to pay dividends big time,” Jacobson adds.
7) Cruise is getting a reset
The troubles at GM’s all-electric robotaxi arm are well-known, but the firm remains positive it can turn things around, not least with a new man at the helm. “Mark Witten, an experienced leader at companies like Sonos, Amazon, Unity, and Microsoft, recently joined Cruise as CEO,” Barra says.
Cruise has in recent weeks begun supervised driving in Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston, and recently commenced driverless testing in Houston, although Barras stresses that a return to operations is “always gated by safety” GM is still promising to “be disciplined with our investments in Cruise”. But it has a three-point turnaround plan for the firm.
“We have learned ways to be more efficient with what we are doing as well as build the regulatory… relationships that we need to have at the state, at the local level, and at the federal level,” Barra says. Secondly, GM is “looking at different ways that we go to market that will be potentially less capital intensive”, such as next year’s pilot with ride-hailing heavyweight Uber.
The third plank is that GM is in “ongoing discussions with potential partners” for Cruise, which, Barra assures, “give us an opportunity as well”.
8) It is making its BEVs simpler
As mentioned above, this is not a purely electric thing — GM is also boasting about streamlining manufacture and trim options on its ICE offering too. But it definitely extends to BEVs.
“If you take the 2025 Cadillac Lyriq versus the 2024 model, we have reduced the part count by 24pc,” says Reuss. This means a “long list of parts we have no longer have to design, engineer, source, warehouse, and install and validate”.
9) PHEVs are not something about which GM is particularly excited
It is slightly surprising, after GM subjected itself to all the scrutiny a strategy U-turn entails when it announced in January it would be returning to hybrids, to find the firm decidedly lukewarm about PHEV going forward. The firm still intends to re-introduce plug-ins to North America in 2027.
“The timing makes a lot of sense because we know ICE vehicles will continue to be popular and emissions regulations are only going to toughen,” says Reuss. But he stresses that GM is not in any rush.
“We are not missing anything right now without PHEVs or mild hybrids in our line-up. PHEVs represent just 2pc of total US sales, and we believe the breadth, depth, and excellence of our EV and ICE portfolio offers more choices and better choices than the PHEVs and mild hybrids out there,” he continues.
Reuss cites the examples of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups equipped with 3l diesel engines as more affordable than Ford’s F-150 hybrid pickup, while getting better fuel economy at 27-30miles/gallon on the highway and running on less expensive fuel. In addition, the Chevy Tract has a base price “thousands of dollars beneath the Toyota RAV4 — it even costs less than the Toyota Corolla Hybrid or any hybrid out there”, Reuss maintains.
On the BEV side, the Chevy Equinox EV has more than 315 miles of range and “costs less than most popular competing hybrids after the IRA credit”. And GM seems decidedly more excited about BEVs than hybrids going forward.
“Make no mistake, as EV choice range and affordability continue to improve and the public charge infrastructure grows, EVs are going to become the right choice for more and more customers. And we are going to have a fully stocked portfolio of amazing EVs ready for them, as you will see as we continue to roll it out,” Reuss predicts.
10) A reshored battery supply chain is possible
Something EV inFocus has noticed recently is continuing commentary that collaboration with China is going to be something the Western automotive industry will have to, and indeed should, embrace. And while that is probably going to be the case in Europe — with certain restrictions on the parameters of such partnerships — we think that is a total misread of the US political climate, where there is bipartisan support for getting China out of the EV battery supply chain entirely.
So, we are not overly surprised that GM, with its keen Washington antennae, is taking a similar view that building a non-China battery industry is totally feasible. “I believe the conditions are now in place for North America to seize EV battery leadership from China,” says Kelty.
“NiCad, nickel metal hydride, and lithium ion technology, including nickel manganese cobalt and lithium ion phosphate, were all invented in North America. Asian companies successfully commercialised these technologies thanks to low labour costs, comprehensive public sector subsidies, local material supply, and critically, local market demand for the product.”
But that is now changing. “It is a simple and pragmatic reality that development of any new technology benefits greatly from proximity to customers,” Kelty continues.
"Today, the US has the customer base; we have many favourable public policies; we have got an ecosystem of suppliers and talent, both in manufacturing and development, that will rapidly accelerate local battery innovation and production.”
And GM is looking to play its part in this reshoring. “We are securing raw material supply chain to flexibly support our growth over the next decade and localise it in key markets globally,” the GM battery chief says.
11) Battery woes are over
“I can confidently tell you that the manufacturing problems we faced at the end of last year are behind us,” Kelty says of issues with GM’s in-house Ultium battery cell production. “While the challenges led to disappointing performance in 2023, it taught us lessons that have positioned GM for significantly higher performance in 2024.”
The firm is now boasting of having already increased battery module production by a factor of 10 year-on-year and is continuing to grow production. According to Kelty, the Ultium Cells plant in Ohio, a joint venture (JV) with South Korea’s LGES, is on track to produce over 100mn cells by the end of this year.
“Thanks to learnings we have been able to apply from Ohio, the Ultium Cells Tennessee cell plant, which went into production earlier this year… is ramping up more efficiently and at an increased rate. In fact, we are months ahead of our yield targets,” Kelty adds
Cell production at the JV facilities have in fact “achieved unrivalled yield rates in the industry, as high as any of the top Asian producers”, Kelty says. “And the cost savings from these improved yields should exceed tens of millions of dollars this year alone. Overall equipment effectiveness, or OEE, values are significantly exceeding our targets.”
“We expect to reduce pack costs by more than $60/kWh in 2024, thanks to the production ramp in our battery joint ventures, along with lower raw material costs,” Jacobson adds.
12) GM is changing its battery cell chemistry…
Like most Western OEMs, GM has up to now largely focused on nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) batteries for its EVs. But this is now going to change dramatically. The future GM battery roadmap will include high-nickel, mid-nickel and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes.
“We use mid-nickel and high-nickel cathodes for our premium high performance and longest-range options,” Kelty says. “For example, today we use high-nickel chemistry in our electric truck platform, offering more than 490 miles of range, more than any other EV truck on the market.
“We will expand the use of LFP in our portfolio, including in North America, in models where we can achieve outstanding range at a lower cost. With LFP, we have an opportunity nobody else has. We have enough space in our truck platform that with clever engineering, we can use low-cost LFP to get range of over 350 miles,” he continues.
Nor, again, does GM seem particularly concerned about the fact that the current LFP industry is almost entirely China-centred. “Our team is actively working to localise supply of LFP, with more to come,” the battery chief says.
As the firm “transition[s] from one-size-fits-all to new programme-specific batteries”, it will also sunset the brand name Ultium for its EV batteries and technologies. Ultium will, though, continue to be used in reference to JV manufacturing sites.
13) …and its batteries' form factor
GM is not just stopping at battery chemistry; it is also going to tackle another fundamental cell element. “Form factor impacts your safety, your pack integration, your energy density, supplier optionality, and durability,” Kelty explains.
His firm will continue to use the pouch cells it has developed over the last decade. But it will also “expand [its] technology portfolio with prismatic cells as a means to lower pack costs while increasing energy density”.
“Our plan is to enable fewer, larger modules in future battery packs, reducing the number of modules by up to 75pc per pack while still achieving our performance objectives. In fact, we are building battery packs and prismatic cells in global markets today. The use of prismatic cells will help us simplify battery pack manufacturing, improve supply redundancy, and competitive pricing,” Kelty promises.
In the future, “cylindrical cells will make up a small portion of the portfolio for high performance models and perhaps for some PHEVs”, he adds.
This diversity is likely to see GM increase its roster of battery partners. “Until now, we focused on building cells and our joint venture plans with LGES — our relationship with LGES remains as strong as ever,” Kelty maintains.
“In addition, last month we provided an update on our joint venture with Samsung SDI, including the announcement that the JV will bring prismatic cell production to Indiana. And we are working on other partnerships that we hope to announce soon.”
14) It promises its new battery plant will be game changer
As mentioned earlier, GM is touting its in-house battery expertise as a USP, so how does this work with the fact it has existing partners and may look to add more? “I am not a believer in doing this all on our own. We partner with LG and SGI strategically because they know how to make battery cells,” says Barra.
It is perhaps worth quoting Kelty at length to try to best explain this apparent dichotomy in terms of GM being positioned to make a combination of in-house and third-party expertise work harder. “We have a team that is already industrialising and delivering battery technology at scale.
“We are prototyping and developing next generation materials and cells that will transition to production over the next few years. We have created mechanisms to identify and invest in emerging technologies through GM Ventures or to develop it in-house.
“We are leveraging our battery cell facilities to research, test, and prototype future battery technologies. Our facilities allow us to bridge the gap between making a few kWh of coin or small pouch cells in R&D to making tens of GWh of cells at a full-scale production plant,” Kelty says.
“For comparison, on an annual basis, the gap between R&D and production is about 1,000,000-to-1 in terms of annual output. To narrow the volume and learning gap between R&D and production, earlier this year, GM began prototyping cells at our Wallace Battery Cell Innovation Center, helping define and implement new product and process technologies in cell plants.
“This centre gives us the ability to build full-size prototype cells — 100Ah, 200Ah or bigger — in pouch, prismatic, or cylindrical cell formats, all in-house. This is a capability many OEMs can only dream of. Building coin cells or small pouch cells of a few Ah is typical, but building 200Ah prismatic cells, that is a different level.
“Because we can build our own cells, we have the potential to integrate new cell technology into full-size cells without relying on outside suppliers to do so. This enables us to chart our own course to future battery technology, allowing us to make and test sample cells more economically, iterate, and ultimately bring new technology to the market faster. Doing this also allows us to further bring down costs and increase performance,” he continues.
And Kelty sees an additional benefit to these capabilities. “While we can do our own independent research and development, we can also use our labs to support the R&D that our best cell partners are doing for us. This makes us the best OEM to partner with.
“All this combined makes GM a more intelligent and informed customer of battery cells to ensure we are paying a competitive price and getting the highest performance.”
But this is not enough for the ambitious ex-Tesla and Panasonic man. He remians concerned about a “learning gap between building a dozen full-size cells/day on our prototype line and 300,000 cells/day at one of our joint venture production plants”. The solution is a plan to build a new battery cell development facility at GM’s global technology centre in Warren, MI.
“This capability really sets GM apart from our competitors,” Kelty says. “As you scale battery prototyping during development and production, you have to scale up by multiple orders of magnitude, but some jumps are more significant than others.
“By adding production capability during battery cell development, we can take more manageable steps and more quickly streamline processes, understand costs, and identify potential issues that may come up in production. This increased capability can help us close the learning gap between cell development and mass production while reducing development times by up to a year from concept to launch of new battery technology, he continues.
GM plans to make its first cells in the new facility in early 2027. “The Battery Cell Development Center will enable us to prove out new GM concepts, which can then be shared with our manufacturing partners to accelerate their ability to provide production cells to us.
“The output from the Battery Cell Development Center will allow us to refine processes before mass production starts. It will enable us to make enough cells for early vehicle prototype testing and validation,” Kelty promises.
15) All of this adds to up to expected progress on bottom line
“We believe our EV losses peaked this year and we are focused on significantly improving profitability next year,” Barra says. How significant? Well, GM is promising a $2-4bn amelioration in its EV Ebit next year.
That sounds ambitious. But finance chief Jacobson can already point to progress. “We have improved our EV variable profit margins more than 30 points year-over-year through September.
“We are expecting our Ebit margin to improve c.55 points year-over-year by the end of 2024. And this is despite having a significantly lower volume versus our expectations at the beginning of the year,” he says.
Two major factors play into the forecast $2-4bn figure: yet more scale and further lowering of costs, although the latter may be somewhat offset by lower price tags.
While third-party forecasts of US EV penetration in 2025 are lower than once expected at 12-15pc, that would still represent a jump from 8-10pc this year. And GM remains confident that it can continue to outpace the market in terms of the share of BEVs in its mix, which would mean even higher all-electric volume growth next year.
“The key drivers include higher volume from the full calendar year sales of vehicles that we introduced this year, a few new models with more affordable trims, combined with a lot of enhanced customer awareness that Norm de Greve and the marketing team are generating. We expect scale to contribute about 50pc of the total improvement next year, driven by higher volume, along with both the emissions credits and the IRA benefits that we receive,” Jacobson says.
The other half of the Ebit improvement is expected to come on the cost side. “Platform efficiencies, lower battery raw material costs, and battery cost improvements are expected to add another 50pc, which are going to provide some cushion against potential pricing headwinds,” the finance chief predicts.
Barra adds that GM is “adding EV assembly capacity in a capital efficient way as well”. “For example, we saved more than $1bn in capital at Spring Hill alone by adding EVs to our existing capacity instead of building a greenfield plant,” the CEO says.
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