European all-electric and plug-in deliveries are expected to grow by 18pc year-on-year to 3.18mn units in 2024, according to research firm EV Volumes, part of JD Power.
This is slightly above 17.4pc year-on-year growth in 2023 to 3.15mn units.
Growth in 2024 will be predominantly driven by BEVs, volumes of which are forecast to grow by 23.5pc this year. PHEVs are also forecast to improve in 2024, with 5.9pc growth.
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The growth forecasts are slightly less than in EV Volumes’ last report. But its BEV growth expectation is more optimistic than EV inFocus' own projections. We see all-electric sales across the EU+Efta+UK increasing this year by a more modest 16.3pc.
“Changing incentives, together with countries pushing back on EU plans for zero-emission-only new-vehicle sales from 2035, has affected the outlook,” says the report.
Both France and Germany have ended BEV subsidy schemes unexpectedly in recent months. But Italy and Spain are both considering new incentive schemes for 2024, the report notes.
Vehicle sales figures from lobby group Acea show that Denmark and Portugal are among smaller national markets also helping to boost European BEV registrations.
The European market share of BEVs and PHEVs combined is forecast to reach 29.4pc in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 31.1pc. EVs will then take a 67.3pc share in 2030, down from 68.6pc, and a 94.5pc share in 2035, down from 94.9pc, according to the EV Volumes forecast.
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